A new report estimates that Prince William County could run out of space to meet demand for the data center industry by 2035.
The report by New York-based Camoin Associates about land needs for targeted economic development industries was recently released by the county. The county’s target industries are advanced manufacturing, federal government contracting, health care, information communications technology, life sciences and logistics.
The report was commissioned to review how land needs are compatible with current zoning and projected growth over the next 20 years.
The most contentious part of the document centers around data centers, which have quickly become one of the biggest businesses in the county and are expected to outpace growth in other sectors by a wide margin.
Data centers are essentially large warehouses that hold the mechanisms needed to support computer systems, including digital storage that powers large portions of the internet.
The report is also part of the county’s ongoing review of its Data Center Opportunity Zone Overlay District, which is about 10,000 acres designated in 2016 to reduce regulatory hurdles for the industry within its boundaries.
The county is considering expanding the district along high-transmission power lines and adopting any necessary changes to construction standards, the Comprehensive Plan, the zoning ordinance and any other effects from data centers.
The data center industry has been growing exponentially in Northern Virginia, with much of that growth coming to Prince William.
Since 2002, the industry has constructed 5.3 million square feet in Prince William County. Looking at the growth trends, 4.1 million square feet was added between 2017 and 2021, compared to just 678,000 square feet from 2012 to 2017.
Of the county’s 5.3 million square feet of data centers, 2 million to 3 million square feet is under construction, the report says. Another 8 million to 10 million square feet is “in the development pipeline,” the report says.
Once all that construction finishes, Prince William County will be at more than 15 million square feet and knocking on the door of Loudoun County, which leads the global market with 26 million square feet of data centers and another 4 million in development.
The report notes that Loudoun County supervisors are considering designating an area near Dulles International Airport for data center development, which could support 56 million square feet near the Prince William County border. However, supervisors have been hesitant to approve such a proposal.
Based on a variety of projections, the report estimates that demand for the data center industry in Prince William will exceed current buildout capacity under existing zoning by 2029 on the high end and 2034 on the low end. Factoring in future rezonings, demand will exceed capacity by 2035.
The report indicates Prince William has a buildout capacity to accommodate about 33.4 million square feet of data center development over the next 20 years under existing conditions. Prince William would be able to accommodate future data center demand in the low and mid-range scenarios, which are 8 million and 20 million square feet over the next 20 years.
In the high-range scenarios, the county would fall short for data centers and in distribution and logistics, which is projected to present the second-highest demand over targeted industries over the next 20 years. In those projections, data centers would need 48 million square feet and logistics would need 20 million, which exceeds its current capacity of roughly 15.9 million square feet.
The report bases its predictions on data center demand in Prince William using previous growth trends and certain assumptions about the parameters for development. Those assumptions are pulled directly from a May 2021 memo prepared by Christina Winn, executive director of the county’s Economic Development Department.
In her memo, writing about available land in the existing overlay district, Winn wrote “only 6 of these parcels are larger than 30 acres, which is generally the minimum acceptable size for data center development.” She also wrote that many “data center requests are for 100 acres of contiguous land.”
The report says 79 parcels totaling 684 acres in the data center overlay district are uncommitted for development. However, it says, only six are larger than 30 acres, collectively totaling 330 acres, and could support 5 million square feet of development.
Bill Wright, a Heritage Hunt resident who is opposing the PW Digital Gateway data center proposal on Pageland Lane, believes the source for the report’s assumptions invalidates many of its findings.
“What I see is that the county provided the answer before they asked the question,” Wright said. “They poisoned the well when they solicited [the report] by telling the contractor in advance what they think the answer is … It poisons the well on any decisions made based on this report.”
The report notes that data center projects are being placed outside the existing overlay district, and that could threaten the ability for other targeted industries to grow.
Distribution centers and manufacturing centers, two of the bigger industries in the county, are limited to industrial zoning designations. But so are data centers.
“Because of high space demand from data centers, prospective manufacturing and distribution space users are at risk of being out-bid for large sites,” the report says.
Camoin also says larger non-hazmat labs could also be competing with land with data centers.
For the Pageland Lane proposal, landowners along the road submitted a request to change the land designation of their properties in the Comprehensive Plan from agricultural zoning to technology zoning for the PW Digital Gateway. The request on 2,100 acres could pave the way for 27.6 million square feet of data centers.
Those landowners have contended there’s not enough land in the overlay district to support the industry and their proposal could satisfy future demand.
Board of Supervisors Chair Ann Wheeler said the study “goes into great detail about the county’s need for additional land that will be necessary for all our targeted industries, including data centers.”
“If we want to grow our commercial base to offset our reliance on residential real estate taxes, we need to look to our future land use needs and plan accordingly,” she said. “The study comes at a perfect time as we are in the midst of our 2040 plan and the review of our current data center overlay district. Hopefully everyone will take the time to read the report for themselves; it is very important.”
(5) comments
The facts are irrefutable. PWC has a lack of funding and a lack of industry because there is a lack of available land. The rural crescent is over 52% of the county's land mass (117,000 acres). Therefore 52% of the county's land can only be used for farming and/or homes with at least 10-acre plots. That means 52% of our land isn't generating enough revenue for the needs of the county's citizens...the evidence...PWC has poor pay for teachers relative to Loudoun & Fairfax, poor pay for first responders relative to Loudoun & Fairfax, we're 1000 teacher's short county wide, we're 220 police officer's short county wide, we spend the second lowest per pupil for all public-school systems in the entire DC Metro area. 87% of our county's tax revenues come in the form of real estate taxes. We just received a 20% higher bill this year than last and it has risen practically every year for the last 15. Solution: open up a portion of the rural crescent for things like the PW Digital Gateway and other commercial needs (not to mention more housing since we have a significant shortage of that as well in PWC). Stop operating like we're still in 1998 when the "rural crescent" was initiated. It's the 21st Century. It's time to use forward thinking not last centuries land planning mistakes.
So glad we moved well away from PWC. These Data Centers were popping up while we were still there and they were an eyesore then. I can only imagine how it all looks now. While we live close enough to drive there if we so desired we really have no desire to see what's happening to the county I lived and worked in for many years. Shame on you Board of Supervisors.
The County has posted a Targeted Industry Land Needs Analysis from Camoin Associates on its Prince William Digital Gateway website. The County hopelessly prejudiced this report with its own pre-conceived and disproven premises. The scope of work provided to the prospective contractor stated: “The Department of Economic Development calculates that as of July 30, 2021, there were approximately 90 to 830 acres of market viable land remained in the DCOZ that can be developed for data centers.”
I wonder if whoever was soliciting this “study” thought they were playing Jeopardy when they gave the contractor their desired answer before asking the question. The resulting report contains tainted information, packaged at taxpayer expense, and presented to the public as independent analysis designed to bolster bankrupt arguments for unnecessary development.
On May 27th, I asked Chair Ann Wheeler to explain the improper solicitation of this report. I have not received a reply. How can the County claim to be objectively studying this issue when its biases are clearly apparent and public input is treated as an annoyance to be suffered through? There has been no feedback provided from community engagement meetings and future project milestones are undermined by the promotion of this sham report.
The Department of Economic Development, which requested the Camoin report, has advocated for this project from the outset and its obvious “finger on the scale” should disqualify it as a source of trustworthy information.
How many more curveballs like this must our citizens fight off? The deception is failing. Try truth for a change.
Advances in computing and network technology over the next 5 to 10 years is likely to make the current data center capacity more than adequate. Who funded the study and did they get the result that they paid for?
Pay close attention to who donates to Chair Wheeler in her reelection campaign. Most of her money will come from donors outside the county, but they will have business interests in the county. Pay to play.
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